← HVN Gathering Hub Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at HVN Gathering Hub Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 11.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.6% | -10.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.2% | -9.4 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Water Genbu | 5.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.8% | -12.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.8% | -12.6 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fractal of Intrusion, Chill to the Bone, Quicksilver Grail. Losers more often ran: Song of Frost, Captivating Opulence, Extricating Touch.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Wand of Frost | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |